The past does not assign probabilities
Saying that something «looks like 2008» identifies a possible precedent, not the probability of another recession. The US Great Recession ran from December 2007 to June 2009, according to the chronology discussed by the Federal Reserve. That describes a completed episode. A new situation has its own conditions.
A useful analogy states what matches, what differs and what remains unknown. If it only lists similarities, it may become a persuasive story instead of an analytical tool.
A forecast must be able to fail
«Will there be a crisis?» is too vague. Define the event, place, indicator and deadline. Then keep the forecast and its date so that it can eventually be compared with what happened. Updating a forecast should not erase its earlier version.
Our current laboratory shows similarities between energy episodes using published criteria. Those scores are not probabilities. If we later publish forecasts, their quality can be assessed only by preserving questions and outcomes over time.
A better reading habit
Begin with a specific question about a current story. Read a source on the earlier event and one on the present context. Look for a difference capable of changing the outcome. If the comparison still helps after that check, you have found a precedent worth studying.