How we find similarities
The laboratory compares eight energy disruptions. Its criteria are public and results can be reproduced.
Start with sources
Record dates, actors and indicators with references readers can inspect.
Compare the context
Assess the economy, institutions, technology and geography before claiming an analogy.
Follow the consequences
Record what happened over subsequent months and years, including results that challenge the first hypothesis.
Test our forecasts
We preserve the date, version, horizon and test for published forecasts, then compare outcomes at the deadline.
How to read the result
Choose five features of an energy crisis: fuel, type of disruption, cause, location and intensity. The site compares them with the records in the archive. The more features they share, the higher the score.
An 80 out of 100 score indicates resemblance under these criteria, not an 80% chance of the same outcome. We show differences and sources. The eight-case pilot has not been validated for forecasting.
Calculation details
The initial weights are: fuel 20, type of disruption 28, cause 22, reach 12, intensity 18. Partial matches receive some points. Differences between eras can reduce a score by up to 8 points; if too much information is missing the site shows no score. These are editorial choices that still need retrospective validation.